Well-Defined Break-Downs in the Ratio of Gold vs. Silver Have Historically...
Much has recently been made about the decline in the ratio of gold vs. silver from near all-time highs of late. Less has been made of the fact that over the past week, that decline has seen the ratio...
View ArticleSilver Upside Could Accelerate in the Near-Term
On 4/19 I outlined a simple techincal break-out for silver and suggested it could be the start of a major rally. I followed that up a week later on 4/27 with a post that showed how the ratio of gold...
View ArticleSilver Shorts?
As of last week silver managed its ninth consecutive weekly gain. The last time it closed with a weekly loss was during the week of Xmas, or 12/23/16. Over the course of its 9 week streak it rallied...
View ArticleMacro Round-Up
Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index)...
View ArticleWhat is Bitcoin Discounting?
On 2/24/17 I presented the site’s first post on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT). In it, I compared silver’s set-up over the 1971-1980 period to XBT’s since 2010. In concluding I suggested the chart-based...
View ArticleThe Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018
In mid-October I updated my thinking on the Nikkei, asking in this post whether its break above quarter-century resistance meant it was finally “game-on” for the region’s much beleaguered equities...
View ArticleHas Bitcoin Stalled Out?
Our last piece on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT) was this post on 11/1/17. Included in it were two major conclusions: A major break-out in/around early Dec-17 was likely, akin to silver in Aug-79, where...
View ArticleHow Historic Bubbles End
The selling in Bitcoin has been relentless since its 12/17/17 peak. Moreover, since then, its rallies have been listless and lacking in vigor. It all adds up to a major deviation in the road-map I had...
View ArticleHow Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?
Haven’t updated my thoughts on Bitcoin (BB: XBT) in quite some time. I’m going to simply re-present the same set-up I did in our original thesis on XBT way back in Feb-17 when it was printing $1K, not...
View ArticlePM VOL Compression
Below I plot gold and the spread b/t its 48 month high-low price range, which now stands at < 22%. Note that historically such a low spread is quite uncommon. In fact, there are only three other...
View ArticleTightest One-Year Hi-Lo Range in Silver on Record
Using monthly prices, the spread b/t silver’s hi/lo price over the past 12 months now stands at ~7.3%. That’s the tightest (smallest) spread in history dating back to the post-Bretton Woods era that...
View ArticleGrowing Dossier of Bullish Silver Analytics
In recent weeks I’ve begun to note the historically tight hi/lo price ranges within the PM complex, first noting both gold and silver’s compressed 48-mo ranges here, and then silver’s 12 mo range here....
View ArticleMulti-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place
Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely...
View ArticleIncorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work
I’ve recently written extensively about why I believe silver is poised for a window of out-sized upside this year, if even it comes in a brief window of time like 1987’s 65% rally, which occurred in...
View ArticleCommodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s
In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad. Further, a similar...
View ArticleGold/Silver Ratio Very Close to Clearing Nearly 30 Years of Down-Trend...
In the chart below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver on a monthly basis, a thematic I highlighted in this recent post. Since the ratio peaked in 1991 it’s secular impulse has been one of incessant...
View ArticleGold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset...
Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver. August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing. It shows that...
View ArticleHand-in-Glove
As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history. The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but...
View ArticleGlobal Macro Round-Up
FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing...
View ArticleGlobal Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support
Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933. This is...
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